Mahmoud Gamal
al-Sharawy, a young Egyptian who has recently graduated from Al-Azhar
University in Cairo, dreams of just living a decent life in a stable country
where he feels safe and secure. He dreams of a safer future for himself and his
offspring. Battered by four years of bloody turmoil, Sharawy's Egypt is
suffering from instability, insecurity, and lack of accountability. Sharawy is
hopeful that his country's transition comes to a close by holding the parliamentary elections that represent the last phase
of a roadmap adopted after the Military's ouster of Egypt's first freely
elected president Mohamed Morsi in mid-summer 2013.
Yet, he is deeply concerned that no end for the transition is near in sight
since "the proper environment for holding the elections in non-existent in
Egypt right now."
"The authorities
are dominating everything including the media, and that doesn't allow a room
for the opposition to express their views, so the atmosphere is not allowing
the elections to be held or democracy to proceed," said Sharawy, a
23-year-old fresh graduate. "There is lack of trust and I can say we are
heading in the wrong direction."
In a factsheet on the website of the Embassy of Egypt in Washington,
D.C., it affirms that "Egypt continues on its path toward accountable,
representative governance that meets the demands of the Egyptian people. Later
this year [2014], Egyptians will elect Parliamentary representatives and seat a
legislative body for the first time in two years." And according to
Article 230 of the 2014 Constitution, the parliamentary elections should
have been held "within a period not exceeding six months of the date the
Constitution goes into effect." However, it is already 2015 and parliament
is not yet in session. Up until February 28, 2015, Egyptians
were supposed to head to the polls on March 22, 2015. However, the elections were postponed on March 1,
2015 when Egypt's Supreme Court ruled the Constituencies' law unconstitutional.
Turning things upside-down, the verdict came in a very hectic time when the
transitional period seems endless, Egyptians are polarized, and the country is
fighting terrorism in the restive Sinai area and in the neighboring Libya. "The
elections are a way for al-Sisi government to show a democratic
transition," said Tarek Radwan, associate director for research at the
Atlantic Council.
The long-awaited elections can give rise to more stability and mitigate
the polarization that is taking serious roots among Egyptians. "The
importance of the elections is more for domestic, a return to normalcy in
domestic concerns rather than any kind of international agendas. So the
parliamentary elections are really only secondary," added Radwan while
sipping his Starbucks coffee in his glassy, open office that overlooks L
street. "I think it will give the Egyptians a sense of a return to
stability, particularly those Egyptians who are tired of transitional process,
who just want a return to normality." he added while sitting is his
rotating leather office chair.
People in Egypt and
abroad are still doubtful, thinking that the election is a mere step in a
list-checking process. Amy Hawthorne, a
resident senior fellow at Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, echoed this
concern. "It is a little bit unclear what the role of this Parliament will
be in this new era of President Sisi. It is not clear. Will it be checking
balance of the executive branch? I'm not sure!"
Egypt's House of
Representatives is an essential component of the structure of the state.
According to the country's Constitution, the parliament is entrusted with the
legislative authority, approving state policy, social development and economic
plans, and the state budget. It will also exercise oversight over the executive
branch. It can also withdraw confidence from the President, the Prime Minister,
a deputy of the Prime Minister, ministers, or their deputies. However,
these powers seem quite far-fetched. "Even though they will have the
power, I don't think they will not have that kind of independence. Again because you are looking at a portion of
the Egyptian polity that is already in agreement with the situation in Egypt,
so you already have people who are willing to engage in a system that has been
defined for them," said Radwan in a harsh tome which is a natural reaction
to his dismay.
Furthermore, the long-delayed
elections will feature the comeback of many Mubarak-era figure who rigged the
2010 parliamentary elections; a fraudulent process that sparked the 2011
popular uprising. Some people are afraid to see the 2010 scenario again.
"I think there is at least a degree of accountability that people want to
know that their voice matter which is a change from Mubarak era. It won't be as
easy to rig the elections this time around," Radwan assured.
Several Egyptian
parties decided to boycott the elections in a bid to pressurize the current
regime to make reforms and fulfill their legitimate demands of releasing
detainees and amending the notorious protest law. Hawthorne, however, ascribed
boycotting to repression and lack of freedom. "The situation [in Egypt] is
quite repressive so there is not quite a lot of political space or room for
people with different views to express those views and mobilize people around those
ideas." she put it bluntly staring her piercing, evenly-spaced eyes.
"We have seen in
the past that boycotting has essentially failed," Radwan put it clearly
putting his hand on his cheek. "The end result is those willing to go
along with the political system in Egypt are the ones who essentially win out.
The revolutionary contingent will not make any gain by boycotting. The boycott
is intended to delegitimize the process but the process has already been
accepted by the majority of Egyptians. So those who choose to boycott now will
not be changing the minds of anyone but will only be weighing the parliament in
favor of those who favor al-Sisi regime."
Since boycotting always
comes to no avail in Egypt, participation could make the opposition part of the
decision-making process and allow them to give a voice for the voiceless.
"In my opinion, I think they do have to participate, they do have to
compete for seats in order to have a voice in government and in order to
challenge President Sisi's political line," asserted Radwan sitting
cross-legged.
The regime also banned
the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's largest and most-organized political
fraction, and went as far as considering them a terrorist group. As such, they
are excluded from the whole electoral process. This measure per se could undermine
the countries stability. "Anytime that you exclude what people believe to
be a large and prestigious organization, there are going to be efforts to
undermine the legitimacy of the process," said Dr. Steven A. Cook, 46, a
senior fellow and Middle east expert at Council on Foreign Relations.
Similarly, Hawthorne echoed
the same thought. "When you have a significant social and political force
that has a wide representation that is not represented inside the political
system, just in general in any country, that can be destabilizing. That's
something that can make the situation unstable and lead to radicalization. So
from that perspective, I think the exclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood, in the
long term, won't be a good factor for Egypt but I also know that some Egyptians
don't want them, she said while her hand combing the highlights of her blonde
hair that encircles her reddish face,
Both boycotting the
election and the exclusion of some social and political fractions will bring
about a non-inclusive parliament siding with the regime. "We will see a
parliament that will have a lot of individuals who are really representative of
their own interested and not a larger
political interest and will have some forces who will very supportive of
President Sisi and other who are not as vocally supportive of President Sisi
but won't be that critics," said Hawthorne.
The regime still can
make some reforms encouraging these parties to reconsider their stances.
"There won't be really any opposition in this new parliament unless there
are confidence-building measures that will lead some of these other parties to
take part, and so far they say they are not going to take part," she
added.
Some international
organizations like Carter Center and European Union announced they will not
monitor Egypt's elections, for the political atmosphere is not conducive to
fruitful work. "The decision to not monitor or send only a technical team
shows a displeasure or lack of trust in a closed political system right now. I
think it is a strong message for the Egyptian government but I don't think it
will affect the legitimacy of the Egyptian parliament," Radwan pinpointed.
For his part, the
middle-aged Radwan also urges the international community to step in and
observe the elections because "lack of monitoring makes the Egyptian
government feel that they can conduct the elections how they see fit."
Hawthorne, who worked
previously for US department of State, also touched upon the fact that
"the United States would like the elections to take place … in an
atmosphere of freedom and with diverse participation of different Egyptian
political forces. So if there is an election process that has a good
representation of different Egyptian political forces and is transparent and
credible process. But I don't think the US will welcome the elections because
an election is being held."
On March 18, 2015, yet
another verdict was issued by a judge and a plethora of counselors sitting to
his sides in a gloomy courtroom filled with politicians, journalists and
photographers as well as ushers escorting them to and from the court yard. The
verdict stipulates that the electoral procedures must start from scratch,
delaying the elections even further and casting a doubt on the regime's
intention to really hold the elections.
However, Cook thinks
otherwise. He thinks the elections will eventually be held but he doesn't
detail when. "I think President Sisi absolutely wants to hold the
elections. I think the Egyptian elite want to hold the elections," he
said. "They want to turn to Egyptians first and to the international
community saying that we have set up a roadmap; we have crossed every T and
dotted every I. Otherwise, they will be in problem," he went on to explain
his point of view.
Despite all these odds
that stand as stumbling blocks on Egypt's path toward democracy, Sharawy, like
many others, hopes the elections be held sooner rather than later. "The
elections are the light at the end of the tunnel and I hope Egypt can reach
that end sometime soon."
