The Uncharted Trajectory of Egypt’s Parliamentary Elections

         Mahmoud Gamal al-Sharawy, a young Egyptian who has recently graduated from Al-Azhar University in Cairo, dreams of just living a decent life in a stable country where he feels safe and secure. He dreams of a safer future for himself and his offspring. Battered by four years of bloody turmoil, Sharawy's Egypt is suffering from instability, insecurity, and lack of accountability. Sharawy is hopeful that his country's transition comes to a close by holding the parliamentary elections that represent the last phase of a roadmap adopted after the Military's ouster of Egypt's first freely elected president Mohamed Morsi in mid-summer 2013. Yet, he is deeply concerned that no end for the transition is near in sight since "the proper environment for holding the elections in non-existent in Egypt right now."

"The authorities are dominating everything including the media, and that doesn't allow a room for the opposition to express their views, so the atmosphere is not allowing the elections to be held or democracy to proceed," said Sharawy, a 23-year-old fresh graduate. "There is lack of trust and I can say we are heading in the wrong direction."

In a factsheet on the website of the Embassy of Egypt in Washington, D.C., it affirms that "Egypt continues on its path toward accountable, representative governance that meets the demands of the Egyptian people. Later this year [2014], Egyptians will elect Parliamentary representatives and seat a legislative body for the first time in two years." And according to Article 230 of the 2014 Constitution, the parliamentary elections should have been held "within a period not exceeding six months of the date the Constitution goes into effect." However, it is already 2015 and parliament is not yet in session. Up until February 28, 2015, Egyptians were supposed to head to the polls on March 22, 2015. However, the elections were postponed on March 1, 2015 when Egypt's Supreme Court ruled the Constituencies' law unconstitutional. Turning things upside-down, the verdict came in a very hectic time when the transitional period seems endless, Egyptians are polarized, and the country is fighting terrorism in the restive Sinai area and in the neighboring Libya. "The elections are a way for al-Sisi government to show a democratic transition," said Tarek Radwan, associate director for research at the Atlantic Council.

The long-awaited elections can give rise to more stability and mitigate the polarization that is taking serious roots among Egyptians. "The importance of the elections is more for domestic, a return to normalcy in domestic concerns rather than any kind of international agendas. So the parliamentary elections are really only secondary," added Radwan while sipping his Starbucks coffee in his glassy, open office that overlooks L street. "I think it will give the Egyptians a sense of a return to stability, particularly those Egyptians who are tired of transitional process, who just want a return to normality." he added while sitting is his rotating leather office chair.

People in Egypt and abroad are still doubtful, thinking that the election is a mere step in a list-checking process.  Amy Hawthorne, a resident senior fellow at Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, echoed this concern. "It is a little bit unclear what the role of this Parliament will be in this new era of President Sisi. It is not clear. Will it be checking balance of the executive branch? I'm not sure!"

Egypt's House of Representatives is an essential component of the structure of the state. According to the country's Constitution, the parliament is entrusted with the legislative authority, approving state policy, social development and economic plans, and the state budget. It will also exercise oversight over the executive branch. It can also withdraw confidence from the President, the Prime Minister, a deputy of the Prime Minister, ministers, or their deputies. However, these powers seem quite far-fetched. "Even though they will have the power, I don't think they will not have that kind of independence.  Again because you are looking at a portion of the Egyptian polity that is already in agreement with the situation in Egypt, so you already have people who are willing to engage in a system that has been defined for them," said Radwan in a harsh tome which is a natural reaction to his dismay.

Furthermore, the long-delayed elections will feature the comeback of many Mubarak-era figure who rigged the 2010 parliamentary elections; a fraudulent process that sparked the 2011 popular uprising. Some people are afraid to see the 2010 scenario again. "I think there is at least a degree of accountability that people want to know that their voice matter which is a change from Mubarak era. It won't be as easy to rig the elections this time around," Radwan assured.

Several Egyptian parties decided to boycott the elections in a bid to pressurize the current regime to make reforms and fulfill their legitimate demands of releasing detainees and amending the notorious protest law. Hawthorne, however, ascribed boycotting to repression and lack of freedom. "The situation [in Egypt] is quite repressive so there is not quite a lot of political space or room for people with different views to express those views and mobilize people around those ideas." she put it bluntly staring her piercing, evenly-spaced eyes.

"We have seen in the past that boycotting has essentially failed," Radwan put it clearly putting his hand on his cheek. "The end result is those willing to go along with the political system in Egypt are the ones who essentially win out. The revolutionary contingent will not make any gain by boycotting. The boycott is intended to delegitimize the process but the process has already been accepted by the majority of Egyptians. So those who choose to boycott now will not be changing the minds of anyone but will only be weighing the parliament in favor of those who favor al-Sisi regime."

Since boycotting always comes to no avail in Egypt, participation could make the opposition part of the decision-making process and allow them to give a voice for the voiceless. "In my opinion, I think they do have to participate, they do have to compete for seats in order to have a voice in government and in order to challenge President Sisi's political line," asserted Radwan sitting cross-legged.

The regime also banned the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's largest and most-organized political fraction, and went as far as considering them a terrorist group. As such, they are excluded from the whole electoral process. This measure per se could undermine the countries stability. "Anytime that you exclude what people believe to be a large and prestigious organization, there are going to be efforts to undermine the legitimacy of the process," said Dr. Steven A. Cook, 46, a senior fellow and Middle east expert at Council on Foreign Relations.

Similarly, Hawthorne echoed the same thought. "When you have a significant social and political force that has a wide representation that is not represented inside the political system, just in general in any country, that can be destabilizing. That's something that can make the situation unstable and lead to radicalization. So from that perspective, I think the exclusion of the Muslim Brotherhood, in the long term, won't be a good factor for Egypt but I also know that some Egyptians don't want them, she said while her hand combing the highlights of her blonde hair that encircles her reddish face,

Both boycotting the election and the exclusion of some social and political fractions will bring about a non-inclusive parliament siding with the regime. "We will see a parliament that will have a lot of individuals who are really representative of their own interested  and not a larger political interest and will have some forces who will very supportive of President Sisi and other who are not as vocally supportive of President Sisi but won't be that critics," said Hawthorne.

The regime still can make some reforms encouraging these parties to reconsider their stances. "There won't be really any opposition in this new parliament unless there are confidence-building measures that will lead some of these other parties to take part, and so far they say they are not going to take part," she added.

Some international organizations like Carter Center and European Union announced they will not monitor Egypt's elections, for the political atmosphere is not conducive to fruitful work. "The decision to not monitor or send only a technical team shows a displeasure or lack of trust in a closed political system right now. I think it is a strong message for the Egyptian government but I don't think it will affect the legitimacy of the Egyptian parliament," Radwan pinpointed.

For his part, the middle-aged Radwan also urges the international community to step in and observe the elections because "lack of monitoring makes the Egyptian government feel that they can conduct the elections how they see fit."

Hawthorne, who worked previously for US department of State, also touched upon the fact that "the United States would like the elections to take place … in an atmosphere of freedom and with diverse participation of different Egyptian political forces. So if there is an election process that has a good representation of different Egyptian political forces and is transparent and credible process. But I don't think the US will welcome the elections because an election is being held."

On March 18, 2015, yet another verdict was issued by a judge and a plethora of counselors sitting to his sides in a gloomy courtroom filled with politicians, journalists and photographers as well as ushers escorting them to and from the court yard. The verdict stipulates that the electoral procedures must start from scratch, delaying the elections even further and casting a doubt on the regime's intention to really hold the elections.

However, Cook thinks otherwise. He thinks the elections will eventually be held but he doesn't detail when. "I think President Sisi absolutely wants to hold the elections. I think the Egyptian elite want to hold the elections," he said. "They want to turn to Egyptians first and to the international community saying that we have set up a roadmap; we have crossed every T and dotted every I. Otherwise, they will be in problem," he went on to explain his point of view.

Despite all these odds that stand as stumbling blocks on Egypt's path toward democracy, Sharawy, like many others, hopes the elections be held sooner rather than later. "The elections are the light at the end of the tunnel and I hope Egypt can reach that end sometime soon."